The International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE)invites you to participate in a training on Models for Point (Deterministic) and Interval (Stochastic) Forecasting, conducted by Rafael Bakhtavoryan, PhD.
Dates and venue
The 2-day intensive training will take place on November 3rd and 5th at International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).
Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.
Time
18:30-21:30 (this includes a coffee break).
Working language
The working language of the training will be Armenian; however, the PowerPoint slides will be in English.
Training level
Intermediate
Course description
Forecasting is an important tool at the disposal of business analysts at small and large companies for successful decision-making. In this hands-on training, the participants will familiarize themselves with different quantitative models used to generate forecasts of the objects of interest (for example, GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates etc.). The distinctive feature of this training is that it will focus on different quantitative models for developing both deterministic or point (without risk) and interval or stochastic (risk included) forecasts. The forecasting models include regression-based models to capture linear and non-linear trends, structural variation, seasonality, cyclical variation, and random variation.
Target audience
The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. This training extensively uses regression-based forecasting techniques applied to various sample datasets and is intended for business consultants, business analysts, economists, policy makers, 4th-year students, and other interested parties that do forecasting and risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (banking, consulting, food industry, production, wholesaling/retailing, tourism etc.). Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with forecasting, however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in statistics, regression analysis, and Microsoft Excel.
Expected outcomes
After completing the training, participants will be able to:
- Recognize the patterns (trend, structural variation, seasonality, cyclical variation, and random variation) displayed by the data.
- Develop various appropriate regression-based forecasting models.
- Estimate the model (or models), decide on the best model, and interpret the results.
- Produce both point (or deterministic) and interval (or stochastic) economic forecasts.
- Make recommendations to business managers to facilitate their decision making process.
- Be proficient in using Simetar (Excel add-in) for forecasting purposes.
Software
An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. A free trial copy of the complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge and will operate for 30 days.
Material presentation methods
A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used. The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.
Registration procedure and deadline
If interested, please register for the training by filling out the registration form (in English) attached and email it along with your CV to the training coordinator, Lena Mamikonyan at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com. Registration deadline is 15:00pm, October 31st. Due to limited seating, ONLY SHORTLISTED APPLICANTS WILL BE NOTIFIED FOR PARTICIPATION. Download the Registration form
Training participation fee
The training is free of charge. While similar hands-on trainings are quite expensive, ICARE fully covers the associated expenses for the participants, thus staying true to its charitable, social, scientific, and educational commitments.
Trainer
Mr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as a lecturer at ICARE’s Master of Agribusiness graduate program. He teaches graduate courses, such as Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting. Before teaching at ICARE, Mr. Bakhtavoryan worked as a Post-Doctorate Research Associate at Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center (AFCERC) at Texas A&M University. Rafael’s research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, food safety, and forecasting. He has extensive experience in using forecasting techniques in his research and has conducted similar trainings in Armenia before (at Baker Tilly Armenia, ICARE).
Contacts
If you have questions, please contact Lena Mamikonyan atlenamamikonyan@gmail.com or call at 093 42-59-55.
Agenda
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November 3rd |
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Topics |
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Introduction to the concept of risk and forecasting |
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Trend (linear and non-linear) regression forecasts |
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Structural variation model |
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Seasonal forecasts using dummy variables |
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|
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November 5th |
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Topics |
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Seasonal forecasts using harmonic regressions |
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Cyclical forecasts using harmonic regressions |
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Moving average forecasts |
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Exponential smoothing models |
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Time-series analysis |