ICARE invites for a training on "Business Applications Using Risk Analysis" conducted by Rafael Bakhtavoryan, PhD, and Aleksandre Maisashvili, PhD.
Dates and venue
The 4-day training will take place on May 19, 20, 21, and 23 at International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE). Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.
Time
18:30-21:30 (this includes coffee break). For details, see agenda below.
Working language
The working language and the PowerPoint slides will be in English.
Level
Intermediate. Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with risk analysis; however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in statistics, financial statement analysis, and Microsoft Excel.
Training participation fee
The training is free of charge. While similar hands-on trainings are quite expensive, ICARE fully covers the associated expenses for the participants, thus staying true to its charitable, social, scientific, and educational commitments. At the end of the training, participants will be awarded certificates of participation. In order to qualify for the certificate, participants have to be present during the entire training.
Course description
Decision-making in business implies that management has a choice among alternative marketing or financial strategies for a business. If the decisions are to be made in a risk-free setting, the manager can easily determine which strategy is best...the one with the greatest economic return. When decisions are made in a risky environment the manager cannot use such a simple rule because the economic return for each alternative is a distribution of returns rather than a single value. One approach to decision-making under risk is to simulate the alternative strategies to estimate the distribution for each alternative's return and then base the decision on these simulated distributions. The purpose of simulation in risk analysis is to estimate distributions of economic returns for alternative strategies so the decision-maker can make better management decisions.
Target audience
The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. The training is intended for financial managers, business consultants and analysts, economists, policy makers, students, and other interested parties that do risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (banking, consulting, insurance, food industry, production, wholesaling/retailing, etc.).
Expected outcomes
After completing this training, participants will be able to:
- Construct and use stochastic simulation models to include risk into business decision-making using Simetar (Excel add-in).
- Make recommendations to business managers or clients to facilitate their decision-making process.
Software
An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. A free trial copy of the complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license can be downloaded for free at www.simetar.com. The trial copy will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge and will operate for 30 days.
Material and presentation methods
A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used. The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.
Trainers
Mr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as a lecturer at ICARE's Master of Agribusiness program. He teaches graduate courses, such as Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting. Before teaching at ICARE, Mr. Bakhtavoryan worked as a post-doctorate research associate at Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center at Texas A&M University. Rafael's research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, and food safety.
Mr. Maisashvili earned his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as a research associate at Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University. He teaches Business Management Applications in ICARE's Master of Agribusiness Program. Mr. Maisashvili's research interests deal mainly with risk management.
Registration procedure and deadline
If interested, please register for the training by filling out the registration form in English (Download here - http://www.armacad.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Registration-Form-Business-Applications-Using-Risk-Analysis-training.doc), and email it to the training coordinator, Lena Mamikonyan, atlenamamikonyan@gmail.com
Registration deadline is 17:00pm, May 12th. Due to limited seating (a total of 18 seats are available), only shortlisted applicants will be notified for participation.
Contacts
If you have questions, please contact Lena Mamikonyan atlenamamikonyan@gmail.com or call at 093 42-59-55.
Agenda
|
May 19 (Rafael) |
|
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30-19:00 |
Introduction to the concept of risk and stochastic simulation |
|
19:00-20:00 |
Developing simulation models. Frequently used distributions |
|
20:00-20:30 |
Coffee break |
|
20:30-21:30 |
Simulating multivariate empirical distributions |
|
May 20 (Rafael) |
|
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30-19:00 |
Validating simulation models |
|
19:00-20:00 |
Scenario analysis |
|
20:00-20:30 |
Coffee break |
|
20:30-21:30 |
Ranking risky scenarios |
|
May 21 (Aleks) |
|
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30-20:00 |
Multi-year financial models (feasibility analysis) |
|
20:00-20:30 |
Coffee break |
|
20:30-21:30 |
Value at risk |
|
May 23 (Aleks) |
|
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30-20:00 |
Portfolio models |
|
20:00-20:30 |
Coffee break |
|
20:30-21:30 |
Portfolio models (continued) |