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Training - Models for Point (Deterministic) and Interval (Stochastic) Forecasting

Organization:

Deadline:

February 12, 2014

Event Date:

February 19, 2014 - February 21, 2014

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International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education invites you to
participate in a videoconference training on
“Models for Point (Deterministic) and Interval (Stochastic) Forecasting”
Conducted by
Rafael Bakhtavoryan, PhD, Texas A&M University

Dates and venue

The 3-day training will take place on February 19, 20, and 21 at International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).

Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.

Time

18:30-21:30 (this includes coffee break). For details, see agenda below.

Working language

The working language of the training will be Armenian; however, the PowerPoint slides will be in English.

Level

Beginner / Intermediate

Course description

Forecasting is an important tool at the disposal of business analysts at small and large companies for successful decision-making. In this hands-on training, the participants will familiarize themselves with different quantitative models used to generate forecasts of the objects of interest (for example, GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates, etc). The distinctive feature of this training is that it will focus on different quantitative models for developing both deterministic or point (without risk) and interval or stochastic (risk included) forecasts. The forecasting models include regression-based models to capture linear and non-linear trends, structural variation, seasonality, and cyclical variation.

Target audience

The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. This introductory training extensively uses regression-based forecasting techniques applied to various sample datasets and is intended for business consultants, business analysts, economists, policy makers, students, and other interested parties that do forecasting and risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (banking, consulting, food industry, production, wholesaling/retailing, tourism, etc). Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with forecasting, however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in regression analysis and Microsoft Excel.

Expected outcomes

After completing this 3-day training, participants will be able to:

  • Recognize the patterns (trend, structural variation, seasonality, and cyclical variation) displayed by the data (GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates etc.).
  • Develop various appropriate regression-based forecasting models.
  • Estimate the model (or models), decide on the best model, and interpret the results.
  • Produce both point (or deterministic) and interval (or stochastic) economic forecasts.
  • Make recommendations to business managers to facilitate their decisionmaking process.

Software

An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. A free trial copy of the complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license can be downloaded for free at www.simetar.com. The trial copy will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge and will operate for 30 days.

Material presentation methods

A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used. The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.

Trainer

Mr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as a lecturer at ICARE’s Master of Agribusiness graduate program. He teaches graduate courses, such as Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting. Before teaching at ICARE, Mr. Bakhtavoryan worked as a Post-Doctorate Research Associate at Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center (AFCERC) at Texas A&M University. Rafael’s research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, and food safety. He has extensive experience in using forecasting techniques in his research and has conducted similar trainings in Armenia before (at Baker Tilly Armenia, ICARE).

Registration procedure and deadline

If interested, please register for the training by filling out the registration form (eitherEnglish or Armenian) attached and email it to the training coordinator, Artur Grigoryan, at arthur@icare.am. Registration deadline is 16:00 pm, February 12th. Due to limited seating in the videoconference classroom, only shortlisted applicants will be notified for participation.

Participation fee

The price for participation in the training is 40,000 AMD (including VAT). At the end of the training, participants will be awarded certificates of participation. In order to qualify for the certificate, participants have to be present during the entire training.

Contacts

If you have questions, please contact Artur Grigoryan at arthur@icare.am, or call at 091 353342.

 

Agenda

February 19

 

Time

Topic

18:30-19:00

Introduction to the concept of risk and forecasting

19:00-20:00

Trend (linear and non-linear) regression forecasts

20:00-20:30

Coffee break

20:30-21:30

Structural variation model

 

 

February 20

 

Time

Topic

18:30-19:00

Seasonal forecasts using dummy variables

19:00-20:00

Seasonal forecasts using harmonic regressions

20:00-20:30

Coffee break

20:30-21:30

Seasonal indices

 

 

February 21

 

Time

Topic

18:30-19:00

Cyclical forecasts using harmonic regressions

19:00-20:00

Moving average forecasts

20:00-20:30

Coffee break

20:30-21:30

Exponential smoothing models. Time-series analysis

 

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