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Training - Risk Analysis for Agribusiness Executives, ICARE, Yerevan, 14, 15, 17, 18 and 19 August 2015

Organization:

Deadline:

August 12, 2015

Event Date:

August 14, 2015, 18:00 - August 19, 2015, 20:47

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International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education

invites you to participate in a videoconference training on

Risk Analysis for Agribusiness Executives

conducted by

Rafael Bakhtavoryan, PhD

Dates

The 5-day training will take place on August 14, 15, 17, 18, and 19.

Venue

International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).

Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.

Time

18:30 - 20:45, Yerevan time (this includes a coffee break). For details, see agenda below.

Working language

The working language will be Armenian but the PowerPoint slides will be in English.

Level

Intermediate. Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with risk analysis; however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in statistics, financial statement analysis, and Microsoft Excel.

Training participation fee

The training is free of charge. Upon successful completion of the training, the participants will be awarded a certificate of participation. To qualify for the certificate, participants must be present in all the sessions.

Training description

Decision making in business implies that management has a choice among alternative marketing or financial strategies for a business. If the decisions are to be made in a risk-free setting, the manager can easily determine which strategy is best...the one with the greatest economic return. When decisions are made in a risky environment the manager cannot use such a simple rule because the economic return for each alternative is a distribution of returns rather than a single value. One approach to decision making under risk is to simulate the alternative strategies to estimate the distribution for each alternative’s return and then base the decision on these simulated distributions. The purpose of simulation in risk analysis is to estimate distributions of economic returns for alternative strategies so the decision maker can make better management decisions.

Target audience

The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills in order to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. The training is intended for agribusiness executives, financial managers, business consultants and analysts, economists, policy makers, and other interested parties that do risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (agribusiness, banking, consulting, insurance, production, wholesaling/retailing etc.).

Expected outcomes

After completing this training, participants will be able to:

  • Construct and use stochastic simulation models to include risk into business decision making using Simetar (Excel add-in).
  • Make recommendations to clients to facilitate their decision making process.

Software

An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. The trial copy of the complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge and will operate for 30 days.

Presentation methods

A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used (the participants must bring their own notebooks). The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.

Trainer

Dr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as an Assistant Professor at Texas A&M University-Commerce, United States. Also, he teaches graduate courses, such as Statistics, Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting, in the Master of Agribusiness (MAB) program at the Armenian National Agrarian University. His research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, food safety, and forecasting. He has extensive experience in conducting trainings in Armenia (at Baker Tilly Armenia, ICARE).

Registration procedure and deadline

If interested, please register for the training by filling out the registration form (in English) available here:

http://icare.am/uploaded_files/Registration%20Form,%20Risk%20Analysis%20for%20Agribusiness%20Executives,%20Aug%2014-19,%202015.doc  , or contact the training coordinator, Lena Mamikonyan, at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com. Registration deadline is August 12th, 19:00. Due to limited seating only shortlisted applicants will be notified for participation.

Contacts

If you have questions, please contact Lena Mamikonyan at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com, or call at 093 42-59-55.

Agenda

August 14

 

Time

Topic

18:30 - 19:30

Introduction to the concept of risk and stochastic simulation

19:30 - 19:45

Coffee break

19:45 - 20:45

Developing simulation models. Frequently used distributions

 

 

August 15

 

Time

 

18:30 - 19:30

Simulating multivariate empirical distributions

19:30 - 19:45

Coffee break

19:45 - 20:45

Validating simulation models

 

 

August 17

 

Time

Topic

18:30 - 19:30

Scenario analysis

19:30 - 19:45

Coffee break

19:45 - 20:45

Ranking risky scenarios

 

 

August 18

 

Time

Topic

18:30 - 19:30

Multi-year financial models (feasibility analysis)

19:30 - 19:45

Coffee break

19:45 - 20:45

Multi-year financial models (feasibility analysis) continued

 

 

August 19

 

Time

Topic

18:30 - 19:30

Inventory management

19:30 - 19:45

Coffee break

19:45 - 20:45

Project management

The series of "Trainings for Agribusiness Executives" to be conducted in ICARE during 2015 are an initiative implemented by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ GmbH), jointly with ICARE and funded by EU, under the EU Targeted Initiative for Armenia project.

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