International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education
invites you to participate in a videoconference training on
Risk Analysis for Agribusiness Executives
conducted by
Rafael Bakhtavoryan, PhD
Dates
The 5-day training will take place on August 14, 15, 17, 18, and 19.
Venue
International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).
Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.
Time
18:30 - 20:45, Yerevan time (this includes a coffee break). For details, see agenda below.
Working language
The working language will be Armenian but the PowerPoint slides will be in English.
Level
Intermediate. Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with risk analysis; however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in statistics, financial statement analysis, and Microsoft Excel.
Training participation fee
The training is free of charge. Upon successful completion of the training, the participants will be awarded a certificate of participation. To qualify for the certificate, participants must be present in all the sessions.
Training description
Decision making in business implies that management has a choice among alternative marketing or financial strategies for a business. If the decisions are to be made in a risk-free setting, the manager can easily determine which strategy is best...the one with the greatest economic return. When decisions are made in a risky environment the manager cannot use such a simple rule because the economic return for each alternative is a distribution of returns rather than a single value. One approach to decision making under risk is to simulate the alternative strategies to estimate the distribution for each alternative’s return and then base the decision on these simulated distributions. The purpose of simulation in risk analysis is to estimate distributions of economic returns for alternative strategies so the decision maker can make better management decisions.
Target audience
The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills in order to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. The training is intended for agribusiness executives, financial managers, business consultants and analysts, economists, policy makers, and other interested parties that do risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (agribusiness, banking, consulting, insurance, production, wholesaling/retailing etc.).
Expected outcomes
After completing this training, participants will be able to:
- Construct and use stochastic simulation models to include risk into business decision making using Simetar (Excel add-in).
- Make recommendations to clients to facilitate their decision making process.
Software
An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. The trial copy of the complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge and will operate for 30 days.
Presentation methods
A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used (the participants must bring their own notebooks). The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.
Trainer
Dr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as an Assistant Professor at Texas A&M University-Commerce, United States. Also, he teaches graduate courses, such as Statistics, Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting, in the Master of Agribusiness (MAB) program at the Armenian National Agrarian University. His research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, food safety, and forecasting. He has extensive experience in conducting trainings in Armenia (at Baker Tilly Armenia, ICARE).
Registration procedure and deadline
If interested, please register for the training by filling out the registration form (in English) available here:
http://icare.am/uploaded_files/Registration%20Form,%20Risk%20Analysis%20for%20Agribusiness%20Executives,%20Aug%2014-19,%202015.doc , or contact the training coordinator, Lena Mamikonyan, at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com. Registration deadline is August 12th, 19:00. Due to limited seating only shortlisted applicants will be notified for participation.
Contacts
If you have questions, please contact Lena Mamikonyan at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com, or call at 093 42-59-55.
Agenda
August 14 |
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Introduction to the concept of risk and stochastic simulation |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Developing simulation models. Frequently used distributions |
|
|
|
August 15 |
|
Time |
|
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Simulating multivariate empirical distributions |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Validating simulation models |
|
|
|
August 17 |
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Scenario analysis |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Ranking risky scenarios |
|
|
|
August 18 |
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Multi-year financial models (feasibility analysis) |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Multi-year financial models (feasibility analysis) continued |
|
|
|
August 19 |
|
Time |
Topic |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Inventory management |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Project management |
The series of "Trainings for Agribusiness Executives" to be conducted in ICARE during 2015 are an initiative implemented by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ GmbH), jointly with ICARE and funded by EU, under the EU Targeted Initiative for Armenia project.