The series of "Trainings for Agribusiness Executives" to be conducted in ICARE during 2015 are an initiative implemented by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ GmbH), jointly with ICARE and funded by EU, under the EU Targeted Initiative for Armenia project.
Dates
The 5-day training will take place on November 26-30.
Venue
International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).
Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.
Time
18:30 - 20:45, Yerevan time (this includes a coffee break). For details, see agenda below.
Working language
The working language will be Armenian but the PowerPoint slides will be in English.
Level
Intermediate. Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with forecasting; however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in statistics (regression analysis) and Microsoft Excel.
Training participation fee
The training is free of charge. Upon successful completion of the training, the participants will be awarded a certificate of participation. To qualify for the certificate, participants must be present in all the sessions.
Training description
Forecasting is an important tool at the disposal of executives at small and large agribusiness companies for successful decision-making. In this hands-on training, the participants will familiarize themselves with different quantitative models used to generate forecasts of the objects of interest (for example, GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates etc.). The distinctive feature of this training is that it will focus on different quantitative models for developing both deterministic or point (without risk) and interval or stochastic (risk included) forecasts. The forecasting models include regression-based models to capture linear and non-linear trends, structural variation, seasonality, cyclical variation, and random variation.
Target audience
The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. This training extensively uses regression-based forecasting techniques applied to various sample datasets and is intended for business executives, business consultants, business analysts, economists, policy makers, senior level students, and other interested parties that do forecasting and risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (agribusiness, banking, consulting, food industry, production, wholesaling/retailing, tourism etc.).
Expected outcomes
After completing this training, participants will be able to:
- Recognize the patterns (trend, structural variation, seasonality, cyclical variation, and random variation) displayed by the data.
- Develop various appropriate regression-based forecasting models.
- Estimate the model (or models), decide on the best model, and interpret the results.
- Produce both point and interval economic forecasts.
- Make recommendations to business managers to facilitate their decision making process.
- Be proficient in using Simetar (Excel add-in) for forecasting purposes.
Software
An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. The trial copy of the complete Simetar© with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge which will operate for 30 days.
Presentation methods
A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used (the participants must bring their own notebooks to every session). The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.
Trainer
Dr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as an Assistant Professor at Texas A&M University-Commerce, United States. Also, he teaches graduate courses, such as Statistics, Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting, in the Master of Agribusiness (MAB) program at the Armenian National Agrarian University. His research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, and forecasting. He has extensive experience in conducting trainings in Armenia (at Baker Tilly Armenia, ICARE).
Registration procedure and deadline
If interested, please register for the training by filling out the Registration Form (in English) or contact the training coordinator, Lena Mamikonyan, at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com. Registration deadline is November 23rd, 19:00. Due to limited seating only shortlisted applicants will be notified for participation.
Contacts
If you have questions, please contact Lena Mamikonyan at lenamamikonyan@gmail.com, or call at 093 42-59-55.
Agenda
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November 26 |
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|
Time |
Topics |
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18:30 - 19:30 |
Introduction to the concept of risk and forecasting |
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19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
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19:45 - 20:45 |
Trend (linear and non-linear) regression forecasts |
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|
|
|
November 27 |
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|
Time |
Topics |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Structural variation model |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Seasonal forecasts using dummy variables |
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|
|
|
November 28 |
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|
Time |
Topics |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Seasonal forecasts using harmonic regressions |
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19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Cyclical forecasts using harmonic regressions |
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|
|
|
November 29 |
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Time |
Topics |
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10:00 - 11:00 |
Moving average forecasts |
|
11:00 - 11:15 |
Coffee break |
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11:15 - 12:15 |
Exponential smoothing models |
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|
|
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November 30 |
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|
Time |
Topics |
|
18:30 - 19:30 |
Time-series analysis |
|
19:30 - 19:45 |
Coffee break |
|
19:45 - 20:45 |
Time-series analysis cont’d |
