Training – Models for Point (Deterministic) and Interval (Stochastic) Forecasting

Publish Date: Jan 15, 2014

International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education invites you to

participate in a videoconference training on
“Models for Point (Deterministic) and Interval (Stochastic) Forecasting”
Conducted by
Rafael Bakhtavoryan, PhD, Texas A&M University
Dates and venue
The 3-day training will take place on February 19, 20, and 21 at International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).
Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.
18:30-21:30 (this includes coffee break). For details, see agenda below.
Working language
The working language of the training will be Armenian; however, the PowerPoint slides will be in English.
Beginner / Intermediate
Course description
Forecasting is an important tool at the disposal of business analysts at small and large companies for successful decision-making. In this hands-on training, the participants will familiarize themselves with different quantitative models used to generate forecasts of the objects of interest (for example, GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates, etc). The distinctive feature of this training is that it will focus on different quantitative models for developing both deterministic or point (without risk) and interval or stochastic (risk included) forecasts. The forecasting models include regression-based models to capture linear and non-linear trends, structural variation, seasonality, and cyclical variation.
Target audience
The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. This introductory training extensively uses regression-based forecasting techniques applied to various sample datasets and is intended for business consultants, business analysts, economists, policy makers, students, and other interested parties that do forecasting and risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (banking, consulting, food industry, production, wholesaling/retailing, tourism, etc). Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with forecasting, however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in regression analysis and Microsoft Excel.
Expected outcomes
After completing this 3-day training, participants will be able to:
·         Recognize the patterns (trend, structural variation, seasonality, and cyclical variation) displayed by the data (GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates etc.).
·         Develop various appropriate regression-based forecasting models.
·         Estimate the model (or models), decide on the best model, and interpret the results.
·         Produce both point (or deterministic) and interval (or stochastic) economic forecasts.
·         Make recommendations to business managers to facilitate their decisionmaking process.
An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. A free trial copy of the complete Simetar© 2011 with all the functionality and capabilities of the single user license can be downloaded for free at The trial copy will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge and will operate for 30 days.
Material presentation methods
A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used. The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.
Mr. Bakhtavoryan received his Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, he works as a lecturer at ICARE’s Master of Agribusiness graduate program. He teaches graduate courses, such as Econometrics, Managerial Economics, and Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting. Before teaching at ICARE, Mr. Bakhtavoryan worked as a Post-Doctorate Research Associate at Agribusiness, Food, and Consumer Economics Research Center (AFCERC) at Texas A&M University. Rafael’s research interests lie in the areas of consumer demand analysis, applied econometrics, and food safety. He has extensive experience in using forecasting techniques in his research and has conducted similar trainings in Armenia before (at Baker Tilly Armenia, ICARE).
Registration procedure and deadline
If interested, please register for the training by filling out the registration form (eitherEnglish or Armenian) attached and email it to the training coordinator, Artur Grigoryan, at Registration deadline is 16:00 pm, February 12th. Due to limited seating in the videoconference classroom, only shortlisted applicants will be notified for participation.
Participation fee
The price for participation in the training is 40,000 AMD (including VAT). At the end of the training, participants will be awarded certificates of participation. In order to qualify for the certificate, participants have to be present during the entire training.
If you have questions, please contact Artur Grigoryan at, or call at 091 353342.
February 19
Introduction to the concept of risk and forecasting
Trend (linear and non-linear) regression forecasts
Coffee break
Structural variation model
February 20
Seasonal forecasts using dummy variables
Seasonal forecasts using harmonic regressions
Coffee break
Seasonal indices
February 21
Cyclical forecasts using harmonic regressions
Moving average forecasts
Coffee break
Exponential smoothing models. Time-series analysis

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